文章基本信息

标题：Financial markets' behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance
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作者：Silvia Ardagna
期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2004
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：Using a panel of OECD countries from 1960 to 2002, this paper shows that Þnancial markets value Þscal discipline. Interest rates, particularly those of long-term government bonds, decrease when countries Þscal position improves and increase around periods of budget deteriorations. Stock market prices surge around times of substantial Þscal tightening and plunge in periods of very loose Þscal policy. In addition, the paper shows that results depend on countries initial Þscal conditions and on the type of Þscal consolidations. Fis- cal adjustments that occur in country-years with high levels of government deÞcit, that are implemented by cutting government spending, and that generate a permanent and substantial decrease in government debt are associated with larger reductions in interest rates and increases in stock market prices
关键词：Fiscal stabilizations; Þscal expansions; interest rates; stock market prices