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标题：International trade, technological shocks and spillovers in the labour market: A GVAR analysis of the US manufacturing sector
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作者：Paul Hiebert ; Isabel Vansteenkiste
期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2007
卷号：1
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：We empirically analyse the response of US manufacturing labour market variables to vari- ous shocks, notably to trade openness and technology. The econometric approach involves an application of the recently developed global VAR (GVAR) methodology of D¶ees, DiMauro, Pe- saran, and Smith (2005) to 12 manufacturing industries over the period 1977-2003. This frame- work allows for an assessment of both shocks to weakly exogenous variables and intra-industry spillovers. In this vein, beyond a standard set of labour-market related variables (employment, real compensation, productivity and capital stock) and exogenous factors (a sector-speci¯c mea- sure of trade openness, along with common technology and oil price shocks), speci¯c measures of manufacturing-wide variables are included for each sector. Generalised impulse responses indicate that increased trade openness negatively a®ects real compensation, has negligible em- ployment e®ects and leads to higher labour productivity. These impacts, however, are relatively weaker those induced by technology shocks, with the latter positively and signi¯cantly a®ecting both real compensation and employment. There is also evidence of positive spillovers across industries from sector-speci¯c employment and productivity shocks. Impact elasticities suggest strong intra-sectoral linkages for employment and capital stock formation, contrasting with weak linkages for what concerns real compensation and productivity.
关键词：trade; technological change; labour market; global VAR (GVAR); impulse responses.