文章基本信息

标题：The role of the exchange rate for adjustment in boom and bust episodes
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作者：Reiner Martin ; Ludger Schuknecht ; Isabel Vansteenkiste 等
期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2007
卷号：1
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：What have been the experiences with boom-bust episodes that have affected numerous countries over the past 20 years? What role has the exchange rate played for adjustment? These are the first questions that this study tries to answer by deriving stylised facts on a number of boom-bust episodes. Many of these episodes have already been studied extensively but often on a country basis. This study takes a more comprehensive view and looks at experiences and patterns across different industrialised countries and compares this with the situation in a number of Central and East European (CEE) EU Member States. Moreover, the study analyses patterns of exchange rate adjustment in the face of busts. It differentiates between those countries that experienced a (CPI-based) real effective exchange rate depreciation/devaluation during the bust, which we call “external adjusters”, and those that did not experience a devaluation, which we call “internal adjusters”. The study looks at the interaction of real and financial sector variables in boom-bust episodes where asset price cycles and their impact on private balance sheets constitute an important driving force. Volatility can be reinforced (or moderated) through domestic macroeconomic factors, competitiveness developments and the international financial environment. We first derive stylised facts for different country groups by examining a number of relevant flow and stock variables. In addition, we conduct statistical and econometric analyses as regards the incidence and patterns of boom and bust episodes and the type of adjustment (external vs internal) that countries experienced.