文章基本信息

标题：Oil Price Developments
本地全文：下载
作者：Anne-Marie Brook ; Robert W.R. Price ; Douglas Sutherland 等
期刊名称：Economics Department Working Papers / OECD
印刷版ISSN：0259-4633
出版年度：2004
卷号：2004
DOI：10.1787/303505385758
出版社：Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
摘要：This paper analyses the factors influencing the price of oil and its likely evolution over the next quarter century. It begins by investigating the fundamental forces shaping long-term oil price developments, highlighting the importance of growth-led demand for oil, particularly that emanating from fast-growing, energy-intensive developing countries, and the implications of increasingly geographically concentrated oil reserves. The paper presents oil price projections to 2030 and examines the sensitivity of the projections to the assumptions about growth and non-OPEC supply. While certain combinations of factors could lead to a significantly higher oil price, the projections also suggest that the optimal strategy of resource-rich oil producers would be to prevent it rising too far. The paper then documents short-term influences on the oil price, which peaked at $50 a barrel in 2004, and notes that they have probably led to a significant departure from the long-run equilibrium price ...
关键词：market structure; energy; crude oil