文章基本信息

标题：Accounting for Russia's Post-Crisis Growth
本地全文：下载
作者：Rudiger Ahrend
期刊名称：Economics Department Working Papers / OECD
印刷版ISSN：0259-4633
出版年度：2004
卷号：2004
DOI：10.1787/537250231174
出版社：Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
摘要：This paper provides an in depth analysis of Russia’s recent growth, with a view to understanding the prospects for its continuation. It examines in detail the main drivers of growth, as well as the main developments and policies that have been underlying it. A key finding is that the role of the oil sector, and particularly privately owned oil companies, has been vastly more important in driving economic growth since 2001 than most analyses have recognised. The oil sector’s contribution to growth has hitherto been severely underestimated as official data do not account for transfer pricing and thus fail to reflect fully the importance of the hydrocarbon sector in the Russian economy. The paper further argues that prudent postcrisis fiscal policy, by balancing the federal budget over the oil-price cycle, has also been essential for creating a macroeconomic environment conducive to strong growth. Looking forward, it is argued that - given its economic structure - Russia is bound to ...
关键词：economic growth; property rights; dutch disease; fiscal policy; transition; resource curse; gas; oil; diversification; Russia; natural resources; real exchange rates; monetary policy; capital flight