文章基本信息

标题：Asset Price Cycles, "One-Off" Factors and Structural Budget Balances
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作者：Nathalie Girouard ; Robert W.R. Price
期刊名称：Economics Department Working Papers / OECD
印刷版ISSN：0259-4633
出版年度：2004
卷号：2004
DOI：10.1787/305051767827
出版社：Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
摘要：This paper analyses two factors which may cause cyclically-adjusted budget balances to give a misleading picture of underlying fiscal trends. It first explores the implications of recent large asset-market related fluctuations in government revenues for the measurement of structural budget balances. And second, it reviews the impact of the increased recourse to stopgap "one-off" measures to control deficits. The results confirm that since the late 1990s revenues have been more buoyant than would have been warranted by the registered rate of nominal output growth and the impact of tax measures. The study suggests that from 1995 to 2000 the average contribution of "unwarranted" revenues to year-to-year changes in cyclically-adjusted budget positions ranged from negligible to around ½ per cent of GDP, the main countries affected being the United States, the United Kingdom, France and some Nordic countries. Conversely, the subsequent decline in tax receipts has been sharper than could ...
关键词：asset prices; fiscal balances; structural balances