文章基本信息

标题：Firm exit, vintage effect and the business cycle in Norway
本地全文：下载
作者：Kjell G. Salvanes ; Ragnar Tveterås
期刊名称：Discussion Papers / Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration
印刷版ISSN：0804-6824
出版年度：1999
出版社：Bergen
摘要：In spite of the large and growing literature on producer heterogeneity and firm exit behavior, littleattention has been paid to the vintage capital theory of firm exits as an alternative hypothesis tolearning/selection. Interpreted at the firm level the vintage capital theory predicts that exit rates increase in theage of capital. The present paper uses a panel of Norwegian manufacturing plants and constructs an index ofcapital age in addition to the age of the establishment in order to disentangle the effects of selection/learningand vintage capital on exit rates. The empirical results suggest a U-shaped exit function in the age of the plantimplying both a learning effect and a vintage capital effect. The vintage capital effect is present under differentassumption concerning reinvestments and controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. The exit rates are found todepend on the business cycle in that exits increase in a severe downturn. Our results also support the assertionthat recessions are periods of cleansing where old capital equipment is scrapped via exiting plants
关键词：Firm exit; vintage effect; business cycle; manufacturing.;Acknowledgement: We have benefited from comments by Tor Jakob Klette; participants at the EARIE meeting;in Copenhagen 1998; and semianr participants at The Norwegian School of Economics and Business;Administration.;.;Department of Economics; Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration;Helleveien 30; N-5035 Bergen-Sandviken; Norway;[email protected];** Stavanger College; Department of Business Administration;P.O. Box 2557 Ullandhaug; N-4004 Stavanger; Norway; var currentpos;timer; function initialize() { timer=setInterval("scrollwindow()";10);} function sc(){clearInterval(timer); }function scrollwindow() { currentpos=document.body.scrollTop; window.scroll(0;++currentpos); if (currentpos != document.body.scrollTop) sc();} document.onmousedown=scdocument.ondblclick=initialize1;1. Introduction;A well-established stylised fact is that massive flows of factors of production is a continuous;process and well above what is necessary to accommodate the net changes for an economy.;1;It;is also established that to a large extent these changes - for instance measured as newly created;and destructed jobs - are permanent changes. Hence; modernisation or restructuring is taking;place via a continuous process of entry and exit of plants and growth and reduction of;incumbents. Theories emphasising producer heterogeneity via learning processes and market;selection are developed and tested empirically to explain these observations. One hypothesis in;particular has gained strong empirical support; young plants have higher exit rates than old;plants.;2;This result is in accordance with theories of active and passive learning processes such;as models by Jovanovic (1982) and Pakes and Ericson (1992); predicting that young;establishments should have a lower survival rate; where plant age is a proxy for the;productivity.;In spite of the large literature on producer heterogeneity and firm exit behaviour little;attention has been paid to the capital vintage theory of firm exit behaviour as an alternative;hypothesis (see Johansen; 1959; 1972; F.rsund and Hjalmarsson; 1991; Solow; 1956; 1960;Greenwood and Jovanovich; 1998). Interpreted at the firm level this theory predicts that plants;with old vintages of capital – a proxy for low efficiency - have higher exit rates than plants with;more recent vintages of capital. However; it is not clear how strong the vintage effect is in;determining exit rates. Through investments old plants may acquire the most recent;technologies or new cohorts of plants may invest in old vintages of capital. For instance; for the;US manufacturing little empirical support for a high correlation between capital age and plant;age has been found; cf. Dunne (1994).;The main aim of the present paper is to disentangle the distinct effects of selection and;1 See for instance Geroski (1991) and a special issue of International Journal of Industrial Organization (Vol.;13 No. 4; 1995) on plant turnover and growth pattern of firms. The other strand of literature is the recent;work on gross job flows. Important contributions are Leonard (1987); Dunne; Roberts and Samuelson (1989);Davis and Haltiwanger (1990; 1992); Blanchard and Diamond (1990); Boeri and Cramer (1992). See Klette;and Mathiassen (1996a) and Salvanes (1997) on the effects of job turnover in Norway; and Salvanes and;F.rre (1998) for turnover by worker categories.;2 See Evans (1987); Dunne; Roberts and Samuleson (1989); Boeri and Bellmann (1995); Doms; Dunne and;Roberts (1995); Audretch and Mahmood (1995); Mata and Portugal (1997). See in particular Klette and;Mathiassen (1996b; chapter 6) for an analysis on the effect of plant age and productivity for the Norwegian;manufacturing sector for the period 1976-86.