文章基本信息

标题：The costs of electricity systems with a high share of fluctuating renewables - a stochastic investment and dispatch optimization model for Europe
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作者：Stephan Nagl ; Michaela Fürsch ; Dietmar Lindenberger 等
期刊名称：EWI Working Papers
印刷版ISSN：1862-3808
出版年度：2012
卷号：2012
出版社：Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universität zu Köln
摘要：Renewable energies are meant to produce a large share of the future electricity demand. However, theavailability of wind and solar power depends on local weather conditions and therefore weather characteristicsmust be considered when optimizing the future electricity mix. In this article we analyze the impact of thesto chastic availability of wind and solar energy on the cost-minimal power plant mix and the related totalsystem costs. To determine optimal conventional, renewable and storage capacities for di.erent shares ofrenewables, we apply a stochastic investment and dispatch optimization model to the European electricitymarket. The model considers stochastic feed-in structures and full load hours of wind and solar technologiesand di.erent correlations between regions and technologies. Key findings include the overestimation of.uctuating renewables and underestimation of total system costs compared to deterministic investment anddispatch models. Furthermore, solar technologies are - relative to wind turbines - underestimated whenneglecting negative correlations between wind speeds and solar radiation
关键词：Stochastic programming; electricity; renewable energy