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  • 标题:Overcoming the Forecasting Limitations of ForwardLooking Theory Based Models
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Andrés González ; Lavan Mahadeva ; Diego Rodríguez
  • 期刊名称:Ensayos sobre Política Económica
  • 印刷版ISSN:0120-4483
  • 出版年度:2011
  • 卷号:29
  • 期号:66
  • 出版社:Banco de la Republica, Bogotà
  • 摘要:

    Theory-consistent models have to be kept small to be tractable. If they are to forecast well, they have to condition on data that are unmodelled, noisy, patchy and about the future. Agents can also use these data to form their own expectations. In this paper we illustrate a scheme for jointly conditioning the forecasts and internal expectations of linearised forward-looking DSGE models on data through a Kalman Filter fixed-interval smoother. We also trial some diagnostics of this approach, in particular decompositions that reveal when a forecast conditioned on one set of variables implies estimates of other variables which are inconsistent with economic priors.

  • 关键词:Conditional forecast;DSGE;Kalman filter filter;predicción condicional;filtro de Kalman
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