文章基本信息

标题：THE ASSESSMENT OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL FOR ROMANIA
本地全文：下载
作者：Mihaela SIMIONESCU
期刊名称：Revista Romana de Economie
印刷版ISSN：1220-5567
出版年度：2013
卷号：2
期号：46
出版社：Romanian Academy
摘要：The assessment of uncertainty that characterizes the econometric model parameters is an important input for policymakers that have to establish more alternative policies to protect against persistent shocks of the economy. The objective of this useful research for policymakers is to evaluate the parameter uncertainty in the behavioural equations of a vector error correction model for Romania. A positive impact of the foreign direct investment and exports on GDP real rate was measured on the horizon Q1:2000-Q4:2012. A permanent shock was observed in parameters. The error correction vector explains quarterly around 10.6% of the desequilibrium. The necessary period for reducing the gap between the value of GDP in the last quarter of 2012 and that in the steady-state is 14 quarters, till the second quarter of 2016.
关键词：parameters uncertainty; vector error correction model; behavioural equations; steady-state; GDP rate; foreign direct investments; exports