文章基本信息

标题：Optimal Irrigation Management Strategies under Weather Uncertainty and Risk
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作者：Franziska STRAUSS ; Christine HEUMESSER ; Andreas MEYER-AURICH 等
期刊名称：Jahrbuch der Österreichischen Gesellschaft für Agrarökonomie
印刷版ISSN：1815-1027
出版年度：2011
卷号：20
期号：2
出版社：Facultas
摘要：Climate change will affect agricultural production through changes in water supply, such that optimal irrigation management strategies gain importance. For the Marchfeld region, we firstly analyze with a stochastic dynamic programming approach the probability of investing into either a water-saving drip or a sprinkler irrigation system until 2040. Secondly, we develop optimal irrigation management portfolios for different degrees of risk aversion using climate data from a statistical model and the simulations for specific crops of the biophysical process model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate). Investment in drip irrigation systems is not profitable. Sprinkler irrigation has a positive probability of being adopted for the production of sugar beets and carrots and therefore mostly shows a 100% share in the portfolio optimization
关键词：Irrigation management; precipitation uncertainty; EPIC; ;stochastic dynamic programming approach; Portfolio Optimization