文章基本信息

标题：Constructing Consistent Multiscale Scenarios by Transdisciplinary Processes: the Case of Mountain Regions Facing Global Change
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作者：Fridolin Simon Brand ; Roman Seidl ; Quang Bao Le 等
期刊名称：Ecology and Society
印刷版ISSN：1708-3087
电子版ISSN：1708-3087
出版年度：2013
卷号：18
期号：2
出版社：The Resilience Alliance
摘要：Alpine regions in Europe, in particular, face demanding local challenges, e.g., the decline in the agriculture andtimber industries, and are also prone to global changes, such as in climate, with potentially severe impacts on tourism. We focuson the Visp region in the Upper Valais, Switzerland, and ask how the process of stakeholder involvement in research practicecan contribute to a better understanding of the specific challenges and future development of mountainous regions under globalchange. Based on a coupled human-environment system (HES) perspective, we carried out a formative scenario analysis todevelop a set of scenarios for the future directions of the Visp region. In addition, we linked these regional scenarios to contextscenarios developed at the global and Swiss levels via an external consistency analysis. This method allows the coupling of boththe scenario building process and the scenarios as such. We used a functional-dynamic approach to theory-practice cooperation,i.e., the involvement of key stakeholders from, for example, tourism, forestry, and administration, differed in type and intensityduring the steps of the research process. In our study, we experienced strong problem awareness among the stakeholdersconcerning the impacts of global change and local challenges. The guiding research question was commonly defined and problemownership was more or less balanced. We arrived at six multiscale scenarios that open up future trajectories for the Visp region,and present generic strategies to cope with global and local challenges. The results show that local identity, spatial planning,community budget, and demographic development are important steering elements in the region's future development. Wesuggest that method-guided transdisciplinary processes result in a richer picture and a more systemic understanding, whichenable a discussion of critical and surprising issues
关键词：global change; human-environment systems; mountain regions; scenario analysis; sustainability science;Switzerland; transdisciplinarity