文章基本信息

标题：A study on capability of financial ratios in predicting bankruptcy of firms: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange
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作者：Ghodratollah Janani Seyed Ali Nabavi Chashmi ; Khosro Faghani Makrani
期刊名称：Management Science Letters
印刷版ISSN：1923-9335
电子版ISSN：1923-9343
出版年度：2013
卷号：3
期号：7
页码：2119-2124
DOI：10.5267/j.msl.2013.06.006
出版社：Growing Science
摘要：This paper measures the likelihood of bankruptcy based on some financial ratios such as debt ratio, current ratio, sales to total assets, etc. using logistic regression and classification and regression tree techniques (CART). The proposed study gathers the information of 36 bankrupted firms and 36 non-bankrupted firms based on Tobin Q ratio. The study gathers the necessary information over the period 2005-2011. The preliminary results indicate that both methods have the capability to predict bankruptcy but with different accuracy. The likelihood of bankruptcy based on CART method were 97.2, 97.5 and 86.1 in the event of bankruptcy, one year before and two years prior to bankruptcy, respectively. These figures were changes to 98.6, 94.4 and 84.7 based on logistic method.
关键词：Bankruptcy; CART; Logistic regression; Financial ratios