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标题：GDP fluctuations and private investment: a study of selected South Asian countries
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作者：Ghulam Mohey-ud-din ; Wasif Siddiqi
期刊名称：Economics Bulletin
电子版ISSN：1545-2921
出版年度：2013
卷号：33
期号：3
出版社：Economics Bulletin
摘要：This study examines the relationship between GDP fluctuations and private investment through employing macro panel approach in a panel of five selected South Asian countries (SSAC) including Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka over the period of 1980-2010. For this purpose, modern non-stationary panel techniques such as cross section dependence test, unit root test under cross sectional dependence, panel cointegration and Group Mean Fully Modified OLS (GM-FMOLS) estimation are applied. The study finds a long-run cointegrating relationship between GDP fluctuations and private investment in the SSAC. GM-FMOLS estimates show that this link is negative. Thus, the results indicate that GDP fluctuations have a significant negative impact on private investment in SSAC as GDP volatility gives a negative signal to private investors. The study also suggests that GDP volatility may be harmful for private investment in developing countries and negative effect on private investment will also be transferred to growth as the investment is a key determinant of growth. So, the governments of developing countries should equally focus on managing the volatility of GDP to increase private investment along with taking other measures for creating an investment-friendly environment. Additionally, an increase in private investment will further help in maintaining stability.
关键词：GDP Volatility; GDP Fluctuations; Private Investment; Uncertainty; South Asia; Group Mean FMOLS; Panel Cointegration; Macro Panel; Business Cycle Fluctuations