文章基本信息

标题：The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect: Evidence from Pakistan
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作者：Tayyaba Idrees ; Saira Tufail
期刊名称：The Lahore Journal of Economics
印刷版ISSN：1811-5438
电子版ISSN：1811-5446
出版年度：2012
卷号：17
期号：2
页码：87-110
出版社：Lahore School of Economics
摘要：According to the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect, an exogenous temporary increase in the terms of trade leads to an improvement in the current account balance. This paper uses a recursive vector autoregression to investigate empirically the existence of the HLM effect in Pakistan, using a time series dataset for the period 1980–2009. Two important results emerge. First, real income deteriorates with an improvement in the terms of trade. Second, the current account balance also responds negatively to innovations in the terms of trade, which implies that the HLM effect does not exist in Pakistan
关键词：Terms of trade; current account; economic growth; recursive ;VAR; Pakistan