文章基本信息

标题：The role of reduced aerosol precursor emissions in driving near-term warming
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作者：Nathan P Gillett ; Knut Von Salzen
期刊名称：Environmental Research Letters
印刷版ISSN：1748-9326
电子版ISSN：1748-9326
出版年度：2013
卷号：8
期号：3
页码：034008-034008
DOI：10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034008
语种：English
出版社：IOP Publishing Ltd
摘要：The representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios all assume stringent emissions controls on aerosols and their precursors, and hence include progressive decreases in aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions through the 21st century. Recent studies have suggested that the resultant decrease in aerosols could drive rapid near-term warming, which could dominate the effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) increases in the coming decades. In CanESM2 simulations, we find that under the RCP 2.6 scenario, which includes the fastest decrease in aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions, the contribution of aerosol reductions to warming between 2000 and 2040 is around 30%. Moreover, the rate of warming in the RCP 2.6 simulations declines gradually from its present-day value as GHG emissions decrease. Thus, while aerosol emission reductions contribute to gradual warming through the 21st century, we find no evidence that aerosol emission reductions drive particularly rapid near-term warming in this scenario. In the near-term, as in the long-term, GHG increases are the dominant driver of warming.