文章基本信息

标题：Eliciting Probabilities, Means, Medians, Variances and Covariances without Assuming Risk Neutrality
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作者：Karl H. Schlag ; Joël J. van der Weele
期刊名称：Theoretical Economics Letters
印刷版ISSN：2162-2078
电子版ISSN：2162-2086
出版年度：2013
卷号：3
期号：1
页码：38-42
DOI：10.4236/tel.2013.31006
出版社：Scientific Research Publishing
摘要：We are interested in incentivizing experimental subjects to report their beliefs truthfully, without imposing assumptions on their risk preferences. We prove that if subjects are not risk neutral, it is not possible to elicit subjective probabilities or the mean of a subjective probability distribution truthfully using deterministic payments schemes, which are predominant in the literature. We present a simple randomization trick that transforms deterministic rewards into randomized rewards, such that agents with arbitrary risk preferences report as if they were risk neutral. Using this trick, we show how to elicit probabilities, means, medians, variances and covariances of the underlying distribution without assuming risk neutrality.
关键词：Belief Elicitation; Proper Scoring Rules; Lottery Tickets; Risk Preferences