文章基本信息

标题：Schedule Risk Analysis Simulator using Beta Distribution
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作者：Isha Sharma ; Dr. P.K. Suri
期刊名称：International Journal on Computer Science and Engineering
印刷版ISSN：2229-5631
电子版ISSN：0975-3397
出版年度：2011
卷号：3
期号：6
页码：2408-2414
出版社：Engg Journals Publications
摘要：This paper describes an application of simulation and Modelling in Software risk management. This paper describes a simulation based software risk management tool which helps manager to identify high risk areas of software process. In this paper an endeavour has been made to build up a Stochastic Simulator which helps in decision making to identify the critical activities which are given due priorities during the development of Software Project. In response to new information or revised estimates, it may be necessary to reassign resources, cancel optional tasks, etc. Project management tools that make projections while treating decisions about tasks and resource assignments as static will not yield realistic results. The usual PERT procedure may lead to overly optimistic results as many pass which are not critical but slightly shorter than critical on the basis of estimated activity duration or average durations. Due to randomness of durations, these pass under some combination of activity durations, could become longer than the average longest path. Such paths would be ignored while using the PERT technique on the basis of the average durations. In order to overcome this problem and be more reasonable, the said Stochastic Simulator has been designed by generating random samples from a specific probability distribution associated with that particular activity of SPM. The said simulator is also not bugged with overly estimated results.
关键词：SPM; Activity Network; Critical Activities; Critical Path; CPM; PERT; Simulation