文章基本信息

标题：The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–pandemic Influenza connection: Coincident or causal?
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作者：Shaman, Jeffrey ; Lipsitch, Marc
期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2013
卷号：110
期号：Supplement 1
页码：3689-3691
DOI：10.1073/pnas.1107485109
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：We find that the four most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009), all of which were first identified in boreal spring or summer, were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Changes in the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation have been shown to alter the migration, stopover time, fitness, and interspecies mixing of migratory birds, and consequently, likely affect their mixing with domestic animals. We hypothesize that La Niña conditions bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world and favor the reassortment of influenza through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts and the generation of novel pandemic strains. We propose approaches to test this hypothesis using influenza population genetics, virus prevalence in various host species, and avian migration patterns.