文章基本信息

标题：IS RISK ANALYSIS: A CHAOS THEORETIC PERSPECTIVE
本地全文：下载
作者：Sumana Sharma ; Gurpreet Dhillon
期刊名称：Issues in Information Systems
印刷版ISSN：1529-7314
出版年度：2009
卷号：10
期号：2
页码：552-560
出版社：International Association for Computer Information Systems
摘要：In this era of rapid globalization information is regarded as a valuable asset. Protection of information through appropriate risk analysis methods and risk management strategies has gained huge momentum. A survey of IS risk management literature reveals that most risk analysis techniques are grounded in the classical probability theory. The scope of the theory is evident from its fundamental assumption that the past is an indication of the future. This makes the theory appropriate for the prediction of known risks, i.e. risks that have already occurred in the past. Nevertheless, the theory has been wrongly applied even to the prediction of unknown risks, i.e. those that have never occurred in the past. We argue that the misapplication of classical probability theory also points to the glaring lack of an alternative theory which in fact addresses the issue of prediction of unknown risks. This paper introduces chaos theory as a means of predicting of such unknown risks to computer based systems, which frequently occur in the IS security landscape.
关键词：IS Security; Risk Analysis; Chaos;theory; Classical probability theory