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标题：Information, Business Survey Forecasts and Measurement of Output Trends in Six European Economies
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作者：Kevin Lee ; Kalvinder Shields
期刊名称：Discussion Papers / University of Leicester, Department of Economics
出版年度：1999
出版社：Leicester
摘要：Direct m easures ofexpectations,derived from survey data,are used in a Vector A utoregressive( VAR)m odelofactualand expected m anufacturing outputseriesinsixEuropean econom iesoverthe period 1968-1998.No evidence isfound with w hich to rejectrationality in the derived expectationsserieswhen m easurem enterrorisappropriatelytaken into account.TheVAR analysisisused toderivem easuresoftrend outputand thesem easures are com pared with the trend obtained using only actualdata. The relative m erits ofthe derived seriesare described with reference to the e± ciency and parsim ony oftheiruseof inform ation.
关键词：BusinessCycleFluctuations;Survey-based Expectations;Trend O utput.