文章基本信息

标题：Analytical support to foresighting EU roles as a Global Security Actor
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作者：Todor Tagarev ; Petya Ivanova
期刊名称：Information and Security
印刷版ISSN：1311-1493
出版年度：2013
卷号：29
期号：1-2
页码：21-33
DOI：10.11610/isij.2902
出版社：ProCon Ltd.
摘要：Making decisions on major investments, including investments in secu¬rity research, requires good grasp of the future, which by definition is uncertain. This paper presents the analytical process, methods, and tools, including the DSTO Scenario Analysis Tool Suite, used in the elaboration and selection of a set of con¬text scenarios and possible new roles for EU as a global actor based on the wider Petersberg tasks. Results of this exploratory process within the FP7 FOCUS project are intended to derive suggestions for the EU’s security research planning. The conclusion emphasises the critical importance of providing rigorous analytical sup¬port, in particular when security foresight involves subject matter experts that are not part of a dedicated research team
关键词：alternative future; context scenario; participatory foresight; scenario design; Security foresight; Uncertainty