文章基本信息

标题：Stochastic Modelling of Annual Rainfall at Tamil Nadu
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作者：Tamil Selvi S. ; Samuel Selvaraj R.
期刊名称：Universal Journal of Environmental Research and Technology
电子版ISSN：2249-0256
出版年度：2011
卷号：1
期号：4
出版社：Euresian Publications
摘要：Rainfall is a phenomenon, which directly or indirectly affects all the sectors like agriculture, insurance, industry and other allied fields. Prediction of rainfall has remained an unsolved problem till now. One of the statistical techniques is the Markov chain used to predict precipitation on short term, at meteorological stations. This paper deals with the variations of annual rainfall in Tamil Nadu based on Markov Chain models. For this purpose, we derived annual rainfall from 1901 to 2000 and frequency distribution table is formed. To calculate the yearly rainfall variations the class interval is treated as states and transition probability matrix is formed. The uniform random states are also formed by generating uniform random number. If the future climate conditions are known with sufficient accuracy, the stochastic climate models available at present can be adapted to generate climate for the new conditions.
关键词：Markov chain; frequency distribution; random number; rainfall; Prediction