文章基本信息

标题："Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion"
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作者：Shiller, Robert J.
期刊名称：COWLES Foundation Discussion Paper / Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics
出版年度：2001
卷号：2001
期号：1
出版社：Yale University
摘要：Research in psychology and behavioral finance is surveyed for evidence to what extent experts such as professional investment managers or endowment trustees may behave in such a way as to help perpetuate speculative bubbles in financial markets. This paper discusses scholarly psychological literature on the representativeness heuristic, overconfidence, attentional anomalies, self-esteem, conformity pressures, salience and justification for insights into weaknesses in expert opinion. The role of the prudent person standard and the news media in influencing experts is considered. The relevance of the literature on testing of the efficient markets theory is discussed.
关键词：Institutional investors; investment professionals; organizations; committees; stock market; speculative markets; behavioral finance; feedback; groupthink; representativeness; heuristic; conservatism; subjective probability; prudent person; standard; ERISA; news media; attention; efficient markets; conformity pressures; true uncertainty