文章基本信息

标题：The Relationship Between Exchange Rate And Exports In Romania Using A Vector Autoregressive Model
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作者：Carmen Sandu ; ‘A. I. Cuza‘ University of Iasi Nicolae Ghiba ; ‘A. I. Cuza‘ University of Iasi 等
期刊名称：Annales Universitatis Apulensis : Series Oeconomica
印刷版ISSN：1454-9409
出版年度：2011
卷号：2
期号：13
出版社：“1 Decembrie 1918” University of Alba Iulia
摘要：In this paper we analyze the exchange rate influence on exports volume in Romania using a vector autoregressive model (VAR). Our analysis, relative to the 2003Q2- 2011Q1 period, reflects a negative relationship for the first lag and a positive one in the second lag. Considering the first lag as being significant, an increase of the exchange rate level has effects in decreasing exports volume. Also, according to impulse-response function, a shock in the exchange rate has significant effects on exports after two periods. Variance decomposition shows a weaker influence, less than 10 percent.
关键词：exchange rate; volatility; Romanian leu; international trade; depreciation; appreciation.