文章基本信息

标题：Devaluation and trade balance in Latin American countries
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作者：Kalyoncu, Huseyin ; Ozturk, Ilhan ; Artan, Seyfettin 等
期刊名称：Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci, Časopis za ekonomsku teoriju praksu
印刷版ISSN：1331-8004
出版年度：2009
卷号：27
期号：1
页码：115-128
出版社：University of Rijeka Faculty of Economics
摘要：The aim of this paper is to examine effectiveness of devaluation on the trade balance in four countries: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Peru. We use the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and impulse response function to estimate the long-run and shortrun effects of devaluation on the trade balance. The estimated results suggest that depreciation improve the trade balance in the long run for the case of Argentina and Peru, and in the short-run there has been J-curve in Argentina and Peru. In addition, the cointegration is found among the four variables (trade balance, domestic income, foreign incomes and real exchange rate) in the case of Argentina and Peru. The results also indicate that there is no cointegration relationship between these variables for Brazil and Mexico. The conclusion of the paper is that the evidence of the J-curve pattern was found for Argentina and Peru only.
关键词：Trade balance; J-Curve; Marshal-Lerner condition; cointegration; impulse response analysis; Latin America