文章基本信息

标题：Probability modelling of landslide hazard
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作者：Matija Zorn ; Blaž Komac
期刊名称：Acta Geographica Slovenica
印刷版ISSN：1581-6613
电子版ISSN：1581-8314
出版年度：2007
卷号：47
期号：2
页码：139-169
DOI：10.3986/AGS47201
出版社：Geografski inštitut Antona Melika ZRC SAZU
摘要：In this journal, the authors (Zorn, Komac 2004) previously described the use of two deterministic methods for establishing the possibility of landsliding. This time, they take a step forward and using the example of the flysch Goriška Brda hills present the probability modelling of landslide hazard. In probability methods, the intensity and distribution of the processes are established by comparing indirectly determined landscape elements and the actual situation, while in deterministic methods, subjective decisions have an impact on the result. We have elaborated a probability map for landslides with a fixed return period using the Dempster-Shafer method on the basis of the data on 800 landslides that occurred with intensive precipitation in the fall of 1998.
关键词：geomorphology; natural disasters; landslides; risk maps; Dempster-Shafer ;algorithm; Goriška brda hills; Slovenia