文章基本信息

标题：A method developed for predicting potential precursors of earthquakes
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作者：Guo Hang
期刊名称：Geo-spatial Information Science
印刷版ISSN：1009-5020
电子版ISSN：1993-5153
出版年度：2000
卷号：3
期号：2
页码：47-52
DOI：10.1007/BF02826623
出版社：Taylor and Francis Ltd
摘要：This paper describes the methodology used to eliminate environmental effects to a time series of short distance (24m) leveling across a geological fault in order to detect potential precursors of earthquakes from the residual time series. First, linear trends and periodic signals are removed from the observations with the help of a recursive least squares method. Then, a controlled autoregression model is used to predict the environmental contribution due to precipitation and evaporation. The difference between the leveling data and these predictions are considered to be due to endogenic crustal processes. Applying this methodology to leveling data of approximately 13 years at Niukouyu crustal deformation station near Beijing reveals an anomalous deformation before the Tangshan earthquake (M7.8), which has its epicenter about 180 km from the survey site. However, in the time period considered, another anomaly occurred which cannot be related directly to a seismic event.
关键词：potential precursors; methodology; earthquake