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  • 标题:Why does it always Rain on Me? a Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Precipitation in Austria
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Nikolaus Umlauf ; Georg Mayr ; Jakob Messner
  • 期刊名称:Austrian Journal of Statistics
  • 出版年度:2012
  • 卷号:41
  • 期号:01
  • 出版社:Austrian Statistical Society
  • 摘要:

    It is popular belief that the weather is “bad” more frequently on
    weekends than on other days of the week and this is often perceived to be
    associated with an increased chance of rain. In fact, the meteorological literature
    does report some evidence for such human-induced weekly cycles
    although these findings are not undisputed. To contribute to this discussion,
    a modern data-driven approach using structured additive regression models
    is applied to a newly available high-quality data set for Austria. The analysis
    investigates how an ordered response of rain intensities is influenced
    by a (potential) weekend effect while adjusting for spatio-temporal structure
    using spatially varying effects of overall level and seasonality patterns. The
    underlying data are taken from the HOMSTART project which provides daily
    precipitation quantities over a period of more than 60 years and a dense net
    of more than 50 meteorological stations all across Austria.

  • 关键词:Rainfall; Generalized Additive Model; Structured Additive Regression Model, Ordered Probit Model, HOMSTART, BayesX, R
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