文章基本信息

标题：Traditional versus New Keynesian Phillips Curves: Evidence from Output Effects
本地全文：下载
作者：Werner Roeger ; Bernhard Herz
期刊名称：International Journal of Central Banking
印刷版ISSN：1815-4654
出版年度：2012
卷号：2012
期号：03
出版社：IJCB Publications Fulfillment
摘要：We identify a crucial difference between the backwardlooking and forward-looking Phillips curve concerning the real output effects of monetary policy shocks. The backwardlooking Phillips curve predicts a strict intertemporal trade-off in the case of monetary shocks: a positive short-run response of output is followed by a period in which output is below baseline and the cumulative output effect is exactly zero. In contrast, the forward-looking model implies a positive cumulative output effect. The empirical evidence on the cumulated output effects of money is consistent with the forward-looking model. We also use this method to determine the degree of forward-looking price setting.