文章基本信息

标题：Using conservation of pattern to estimate spatial parameters from a single snapshot
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作者：Matt J. Keeling ; Stephen P. Brooks ; Christopher A. Gilligan 等
期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2004
卷号：101
期号：24
页码：9155-9160
DOI：10.1073/pnas.0400335101
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：Rapid reaction in the face of an epidemic is a key element in effective and efficient control; this is especially important when the disease has severe public health or economic consequences. Determining an appropriate level of response requires rapid estimation of the rate of spread of infection from limited disease distribution data. Generally, the techniques used to estimate such spatial parameters require detailed spatial data at multiple time points; such data are often time-consuming and expensive to collect. Here we present an alternative approach that is computationally efficient and only requires spatial data from a single time point, hence saving valuable time at the start of the epidemic. By assuming that fundamental spatial statistics are near equilibrium, parameters can be estimated by minimizing the expected rate of change of these statistics, hence conserving the general spatial pattern. Although applicable to both ecological and epidemiological data, here we focus on disease data from computer simulations and real epidemics to show that this method produces reliable results that could be used in practical situations.
关键词：epidemic ; spatial spread ; parameter estimation ; foot-and-mouth disease ; citrus tristeza virus