文章基本信息

标题：Modelling the lethargic crab disease
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作者：C. P. Ferreira ; M. R. Pie ; L. Esteva 等
期刊名称：Journal of Biological Dynamics
印刷版ISSN：1751-3758
电子版ISSN：1751-3766
出版年度：2009
卷号：3
期号：6
页码：620-634
DOI：10.1080/17513750902915960
出版社：Taylor & Francis
摘要：The lethargic crab disease (LCD) is an emergent infirmity that has decimated native populations of the mangrove land crab ( Ucides cordatus , Decapoda: Ocypodidae) along the Brazilian coast. Several potential etiological agents have been linked with LCD, but only in 2005 was it proved that it is caused by an ascomycete fungus. This is the first attempt to develop a mathematical model to describe the epidemiological dynamics of LCD. The model presents four possible scenarios, namely, the trivial equilibrium, the disease-free equilibrium, endemic equilibrium, and limit cycles arising from a Hopf bifurcation. The threshold values depend on the basic reproductive number of crabs and fungi, and on the infection rate. These scenarios depend on both the biological assumptions and the temporal evolution of the disease. Numerical simulations corroborate the analytical results and illustrate the different temporal dynamics of the crab and fungus populations.
关键词：mangrove crab ; lethargic crab disease ; mathematical model ; endemic equilibrium ; Hopf bifurcation