文章基本信息

标题：The Economic Transmission of Fiscal Policy Shocks from Western to Eastern Europe
本地全文：下载
作者：Jesús Crespo Cuaresma ; Markus Eller ; Aaron Mehrotra 等
期刊名称：Focus on European Economic Integration
出版年度：2011
卷号：2011
期号：2
出版社：Österreichische Nationalbank
摘要：This paper studies the transmission of a foreign fiscal policy shock (assumed to be generated in Germany) to key macroeconomic variables in five Central and Eastern European economies (CEE-5). We use quarterly data from 1995 to 2009 and estimate an open economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model identified by imposing reasonable restrictions on contemporaneous responses in the system. Our model is able to identify well-known episodes of fiscal policy action in the countries under review. We find that a foreign fiscal shock affects domestic fiscal variables and vice versa, which highlights the importance of cross-country coordination of fiscal policies within the EU. All the CEE-5 respond to a fiscal expansion abroad with fiscal easing at home (more strongly on the public spending than on the revenue side). We find negative cross-border fiscal spillovers for Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, while in Poland and Hungary, output reacts positively to a fiscal expansion in Germany. For domestic fiscal shocks, which we also explore, we find Keynesian responses in Hungary and Slovakia, while non-Keynesian responses are present in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia. Our results imply that “one-size-fits-all” policy recommendations would be too simplistic for the CEE-5; a deeper understanding of the reasons for cross-country differences in response to fiscal shocks is required to be able to provide adequate information to policymakers in these countries
关键词：fiscal policy, cross-border spillovers, fiscal multiplier, foreign shock, structural vector autoregression, Central and Eastern Europe, Germany