文章基本信息

标题：INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS IN THAILAND: FORECASTING WITH ARFIMA-FIGARCH APPROACH
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作者：KANCHANA CHOKETHAWORN ; THANES SRIWICHAILAMPHAN ; SONGSAK SRIBOONCHITTA 等
期刊名称：Annals of the University of Petrosani : Economics
印刷版ISSN：1582-5949
电子版ISSN：2247-8620
出版年度：2010
卷号：X
期号：02
页码：75-84
出版社：University of Petrosani
摘要：Forecasting is an essential analytical tool for tourism policy andplanning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on ARFIMA(p,d,q)-FIGARCH(p,d,q). Secondary data was used to produce forecasts of the number of international touristarrivals to Thailand for the period of 2009-2010. Research results during this period confirmthat the best forecasting method based on the ARFIMA(p,d,q)-FIGARCH(p,d,q) model isARFIMA(1,-0.45,1)-FIGARCH(1,-0.07,1). Furthermore, this model predicts that the number ofinternational tourist arrivals in Thailand for the period of 2009-2010 will not go up or beconstant. If these results can be generalized for future years, then it suggests that both the Thaigovernment sector and also the private tourism industry sector of Thailand need to develop thetourism market of Thailand immediately and also develop tourism products in Thailandurgently.