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标题：Measuring the NAIRU in the Spanish Economy (312 KB)
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作者：Ángel Estrada ; Ignacio Hernando y J. David López Salido
期刊名称：Documentos de Trabajo / Banco de España
印刷版ISSN：0213-2710
电子版ISSN：1579-8666
出版年度：2000
卷号：1
出版社：Banco de España
摘要：This paper addresses the issue of measuring the NAIRU in the Spanish economy. We implement some of the procedures proposed in the literature to estimate the NAIRU, describing their advantages and disadvantages. Our analysis shows that these alternative approaches provide significantly different point estimates of the NAIRU. Moreover, whenever some measures of the precision of the estimate are available (Phillips-curve based estimates and SVAR estimates), the degree of uncertainty is remarkable. Thus, our main conclusion is that the usefulness of the NAIRU concept as a general guideline for discussing and analyzing macroeconomic policy is very limited, given the current state of economic research on this area. Two additional conclusions may be summarized as follows. First, all the NAIRU estimates display an upsurge between 1981 and 1985, and a drop during the last cyclical upturn that has closely tracked the decline in the observed unemployment rate. Second, the results of the structural approach point to three factors driving the changes in the NAIRU over the sample period: price mark-ups, the replacement ratio and changes in the tax system.