文章基本信息

标题：ovReDNoTeNJe MaKRoeKoNoMSKIh NaPoveDI za SloveNIJo v oBDoBJU 1997–2009
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作者：Dr. Timotej Jagrič ; Ekonomsko-poslovna fakulteta Univerze v Mariboru
期刊名称：IB Revija
印刷版ISSN：1318-2803
出版年度：2010
卷号：2
出版社：Urad za Makroekonomske Analize in Razvoj (UMAR) / Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (IMAD)
摘要：In this paper we analyze the forecast performance of macroeconomic variables for six institutions, which regularly publish the forecasts for Slovenia. The analysis is focused on the quality of forecast of real and nominal GDP growth and average growth rate of inflation for the period 1997 to 2009. The results are mixed and do not point at one most reliable forecast. The tests also reviled that the forecast models might have structural difficulties. Overall we can conclude, that there is a lot of room for further development of forecast models. The results also indicate, that the developers of forecast models placed greater emphasis to small overall forecast error of the models and less to the accuracy in the direction. For efficient economic policy however, the last property is of great importance.
关键词：forecast of macroeconomic variables, economic policy, measures of predictive accuracy