摘要:In this paper we present a simple, theory-based measure of the variations
in aggregate economic efficiency associated with business fluctuations. We de-
compose this indicator, which we refer to as “the gap”, into two constituent
parts: a price markup and a wage markup, and show that the latter accounts
for the bulk of the fluctuations in our gap measure. We also demonstrate the
connection between our gap measure and the gap between ouput and its natural
level, a more traditional indicator of aggregate inefficiency. Finally, we derive
a measure of the welfare costs of business cycles that is directly related to our
gap variable. Our welfare measure corresponds to the inefficient component
of economic fluctuations, and should thus be interpreted as a lower bound to
the costs of the latter. When applied to postwar U.S. data, for some plausi-
ble parametrizations, our measure indicates non-negligible welfare losses of gap
fluctuations. The results, however, hinge critically on some key parameters,
including the intertemporal elasticity of labor supply.
关键词:Key Words: Business Cycles, Countercyclical Markups, Welfare Costs