文章基本信息

标题：A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro-area
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作者：Pilar Bengoechea y Gabriel Pérez-Quirós
期刊名称：Documentos de Trabajo / Banco de España
印刷版ISSN：0213-2710
电子版ISSN：1579-8666
出版年度：2004
卷号：1
出版社：Banco de España
摘要：
This paper investigates the identification and dating of the European business cycle, using different methods. We concentrate on methods and statistical series that provides timely and accurate information about the contemporaneous state of the economy in order to provide the reader with a useful tool that allows him or her to analyze current business conditions and make predictions about the future state of the economy. In this spirit, we find that the European Commission industrial confidence indicator (ICI) is useful in providing that information.
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