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标题：A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis
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作者：Dierk Herzer
期刊名称：Discussion Papers / Ibero America Institute for Economic Research (IAI)
出版年度：2010
卷号：2010
出版社：Ibero America Institute for Economic Research
摘要：This paper challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a mere change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques to a production function model with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export GDP in developing countries, (ii) the long-run effect of exports on non-export output, however, is negative on average, and (iii) there are large differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP across countries. Evidence from a simple regression analysis suggests that these cross-country differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP are significantly negatively related to cross-country differences in primary export dependence, business regulation, and labour regulation, whereas there is no statistically significant association between the growth effect of exports and the capacity of a country to absorb knowledge.
关键词：Export-led growth; Developing countries; Panel cointegration