文章基本信息

标题：Is a Word to the Wise Indeed Enough? ECB Statements and the Predictibility of Interest Rate Decisions
本地全文：下载
作者：David-Jan Jansen en Jakob de Haan
期刊名称：DNB Working Papers / De Nederlandsche Bank
出版年度：2005
卷号：1
出版社：De Nederlandsche Bank
摘要：We show that comments by euro area central bankers contain information on future ECB interest rate decisions, but that the comments mainly reflect recent developments in macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, models using only communication variables are outperformed by straightforward Taylor rule models. During the first years of the European Economic and Monetary Union, comments by ECB Executive Board members and high-level Bundesbank policy-makers were more informative than comments by national central bank presidents. We also find that differences of opinion were informative when they concerned the outlook for economic growth. Finally, our results suggest that the ECB used communication especially to signal interest rate increases. JEL classifcations: E43, E52, E58.
关键词：central bank communication, interest rate decisions, ECB, Taylor rule, ordered probit models