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  • 标题:Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Claudio Borio ; Mathias Drehmann
  • 期刊名称:BIS Quarterly Review: International Banking and Financial Market Developments = BIZ-Quartalsbericht: Internationales Bankgeschäft und internationale Finanzmärkte
  • 印刷版ISSN:1012-9979
  • 出版年度:2009
  • 卷号:2009
  • 期号:1
  • 出版社:Bank for International Settlements
  • 摘要:

    Historically, unusually strong increases in credit and asset prices have tended to precede banking crises. Could the current crisis have been anticipated by exploiting this relationship? We explore this question by assessing the out-of-sample performance of leading indicators of banking system distress developed in previous work, also extended to incorporate explicitly property prices. We find that they are fairly successful in providing a signal for several banking systems currently in distress, including that of the United States. We also consider the complications that arise in calibrating the indicators as a result of cross-border exposures, so prominent in the current episode.

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