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  • 标题:A Case for Robust Bayesian Priors with Applications to Clinical Trials
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Jairo. A. Fuquene ; John. D. Cook ; Luis. R. Pericchi
  • 期刊名称:Bayesian Analysis
  • 印刷版ISSN:1931-6690
  • 电子版ISSN:1936-0975
  • 出版年度:2009
  • 卷号:04
  • 期号:04
  • DOI:10.1214/09-BA431
  • 出版社:International Society for Bayesian Analysis
  • 摘要:

    Bayesian analysis is frequently confused with conjugate Bayesian ana-
    lysis. This is particularly the case in the analysis of clinical trial data. Even
    though conjugate analysis is perceived to be simpler computationally (but see
    below, Berger's prior), the price to be paid is high: such analysis is not robust with
    respect to the prior, i.e. changing the prior may a®ect the conclusions without
    bound. Furthermore, conjugate Bayesian analysis is blind with respect to the
    potential con°ict between the prior and the data. Robust priors, however, have
    bounded in°uence. The prior is discounted automatically when there are con°icts
    between prior information and data. In other words, conjugate priors may lead
    to a dogmatic analysis while robust priors promote self-criticism since prior and
    sample information are not on equal footing. The original proposal of robust priors
    was made by de-Finetti in the 1960's. However, the practice has not taken hold
    in important areas where the Bayesian approach is making de¯nite advances such
    as in clinical trials where conjugate priors are ubiquitous.

  • 关键词:Berger's Prior; Clinical Trials; Exponential Family; Intrinsic Prior; Parametric Robust Priors; Polynomial Tails Comparison Theorem; Robust Priors
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