文章基本信息

标题：Modeling the Non-Linear Behaviour of Inflation Deviations from the target
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作者：Andros Gregoriou a ; Alexandros Kontonikas b
期刊名称：Departmental Discussion Papers / University of Glasgow, Department of Economics
出版年度：2005
卷号：1
出版社：University of Glasgow, Department of Economics
摘要：This study tests for and models non-linearities in inflation deviations from the target in five OECD countries that adopted inflation targeting over the 1990s. Our tests reject the linearity hypothesis and we show that the exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) model is capable of capturing the non-linear behavior of inflation misalignments. The extent of inflation deviations from the target varies across the OECD countries, with countries that consistently undershoot the target having a rapid adjustment process, whereas countries that overshoot the target have a slower revision back to equilibrium. Out-of-sample forecasts from the ESTAR model outperform the Markov regime-switching model.
关键词：Inflation; Inflation targeting; STAR models.