文章基本信息

标题：Does Central Bank Communication Really Lead to Better Forecasts of Policy Decisions? New Evidence Based on a Taylor Rule Model for the ECB
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作者：Jan-Egbert Sturm ; Jakob de Haan
期刊名称：KOF Working Papers
出版年度：2009
卷号：1
出版社：KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle, ETH Zürich
摘要：Nowadays, it is widely believed that greater disclosure and clarity over policy may lead to greater predictability of central bank actions. We examine whether communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) adds information compared to the information provided by a Taylor rule model in which real time expected inflation and output are used. We use five indicators of ECB communication that are all based on the ECB President’s introductory statement at the press conference following an ECB policy meeting. Our results suggest that even though the indicators are sometimes quite different from one another, they add information that helps predict the next policy decision of the ECB. Furthermore, also when the interbank rate is included in our Taylor rule model, the ECB communication indicators remain significant.
关键词：ECB, central bank, communication, Taylor rule