文章基本信息

标题：Norges Bank’ s management of cash inventor ies
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作者：Knut Are Aastveit ; economist in the Financial Markets Department ; Thomas Kjørstad 等
期刊名称：Economic Bulletin / Norges Bank
印刷版ISSN：0029-1676
电子版ISSN：1503-8831
出版年度：2006
期号：02
出版社：Norges Bank
摘要：In order to fulfil its obligations regarding the supply of notes and coins, Norges Bank needs to hold cash inventories. The level of inventories must be considered with regard to ordinary and extraordinary circum- stances. In order to predict demand and reduce the uncertainty concerning inventory requirements, sound models that can enhance the understanding of changes in cash circulation are required. The explanatory variables for cash demand can be divided into three different groups: general macro-economic variables, variables that express the competition between cash and deposits, and variables that may provide insight into the illegal economy. A newly developed model for cash demand shows that demand for actual cash is dependent on real consumption at the point of sale, bank interest rates and a negative linear trend that cap- tures developments in the payment system, in addition to the historical value of real cash. The model-based forecasts show that demand for cash will increase in the next quarters before decreasing towards the end of 2006 and further through 2007.