文章基本信息

标题：The neutral real interest rate
本地全文：下载
作者：Tom Bernhardsen ; Karsten Gerdrup
期刊名称：Economic Bulletin / Norges Bank
印刷版ISSN：0029-1676
电子版ISSN：1503-8831
出版年度：2007
期号：02
出版社：Norges Bank
摘要：The concept “neutral real interest rate” is generally associated with the real interest rate level, which implies that monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. We define the neutral real interest rate as the real interest rate level which in the medium term is consistent with a closed output gap. We consider in more detail how the neutral real interest rate in a small, open economy is influenced by global conditions. The neutral real interest rate cannot be observed, and estimates are uncertain. Different methods for estimating the neutral real interest rate are presented in this article. An overall assessment implies that it will normally lie in the range of about 2½–3½ per cent in Norway. In recent years, with low real interest rates globally, we cannot exclude the possibility that the neutral real interest rate in Norway may be even lower. The neutral real interest rate has probably been falling since the 1980s and early 1990s, partly as a result of lower inflation risk premia.