文章基本信息

标题：Permanent vs Transitory Components and Economic Fundamentals
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作者：Anthony Garratt ; Donald Robertson ; Stephen Wright 等
期刊名称：Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance / School of Economics, Mathematics and Statistics, Birkbeck College
印刷版ISSN：1745-8587
出版年度：2005
卷号：2005
出版社：London University
摘要：Any non-stationary series can be decomposed into permanent (or “trend”) and transitory (or “cycle”) components. Typically some atheoretic pre-filtering procedure is applied to extract the permanent component. This paper argues that analysis of the fundamental underlying stationary economic processes should instead be central to this process. We present a new derivation of multivariate Beveridge-Nelson permanent and transitory components, whereby the latter can be derived explicitly as a weighting of observable stationary processes. This allows far clearer economic interpretations. Different assumptions on the fundamental stationary processes result in distinctly different results; but this reflects deep economic uncertainty. We illustrate with an example using Garratt et al’s (2003a) small VECM model of the UK economy.