文章基本信息

标题：Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area.
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作者：Guglielmo Maria Caporale ; Luca Onorante ; Paolo Paesani 等
期刊名称：DIW Diskussionspapiere / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin
出版年度：2009
卷号：2009
出版社：Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin
摘要：This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates the linkages between them in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly owing to exogenous shocks. A sequential dummy procedure provides further evidence of a structural break coinciding with the introduction of the euro and resulting in lower long-run uncertainty. It also appears that the direction of causality has been reversed, and that in the euro period the Friedman-Ball link is empirically supported, implying that the ECB can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate.
关键词：Inflation, inflation uncertainty, time-varying parameters, GARCH models, ECB, EMU