期刊名称:DIW Diskussionspapiere / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin
出版年度:2007
卷号:2007
出版社:Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin
摘要:In this study, we suggest an explanation for the alarmingly low growth rates of
real housing prices in Canada and Germany in comparison to other OECD countries
over 1975-2005. We show that the long-run development of housing markets is
determined by real disposable per capita income, real long-term interest rate,
population growth, and urbanization. The differential development of real
housing prices in Canada and Germany is attributed to the specific values of the
fundamentals in these two countries. Canada and Germany are characterized by
relatively low average growth rates of real disposable income and relatively
high interest rates resulting in suppressed housing prices over long period of
time. Institutional structure accentuates these tendencies. Given the importance
of housing wealth for the private consumption, our paper aims at drawing
attention of the policymakers to the necessity of preventing not only the
overheating but also overcooling of the housing market that entails lower
economic growth rate.