文章基本信息

标题：The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy
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作者：Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza ; Markwardt, Gunther
期刊名称：Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics / Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business Management and Economics
印刷版ISSN：0945-4829
出版年度：2008
卷号：1
出版社：Dresden
摘要：The Iranian economy is highly vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between oil price shocks and major macroeconomic variables in Iran by applying a VAR approach. The study points out the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks; for instance, positive as well as negative oil price shocks significantly increase inflation. We find a strong positive relationship between positive oil price changes and industrial output growth. Unexpectedly, we can only identify a marginal impact of oil price fluctuations on real government expenditures. Furthermore, we observe the "Dutch Disease" syndrome through significant real effective exchange rate appreciation.
关键词：macroeconomic uctuations, oil price shocks, developing economies, Iran, VAR modelling